Quarterly Newsletters
This page contains the contents of quarterly letters we have written to our clients. Reading through them will give you a good idea what it is like to be with us.
If you do read them you will notice we just keep on saying the same thing over and over. The key to investment success is behavioral control. Be a long-term investor. Don’t give in to your emotions. Don’t panic buy when the market is rising or panic sell when it is falling. This is our central tenant. Easy to say but amazingly hard to do. The large majority of mutual fund money goes into the Morningstar four or five star funds – the funds that have done well lately. And the result is that fund investors under perform their own funds by fifty percent. Performance chasing, aka market timing, is a disaster. We believe patience is king in investing.
In order to read the full letter, please click on the date.
- Quarterly Newsletter - January 2012
In 2011, global diversification proved as important as ever. Although diversification may not have prevented losses, investors with broadly diversified portfolios were better equipped to endure the uncertainty. U.S. stocks experienced some of the highe...
- Quarterly Newsletter - October 2011
The stock market now feels like it did in 2008 and 2009. It is violently volatile and one has the thought that it could just fall off the edge of the world – go down and then stay down for a very long time. This time the fear factor is, if possible, ...
- Quarterly Newsletter - July 2011
What do the best all-time basketball free throw shooters and Pinney & Scofield’s investment method have in common? No, this isn’t a joke. The best free throw shooters will tell you they never think about making or missing the shot. Rather they ...
- Quarterly Newsletter - April 2011
Will my money be safe? We were recently asked this question by a prospective client and it is an interesting one.
- Quarterly Newsletter - January 2011
2010 began with both the press and the markets full of pessimistic predictions. And yet the year finished with quite satisfactory investment returns for a patient...
- Quarterly Newsletter - October 2010
The past nineteen months have felt a bit like walking on thin ice. The downward spiral of the economy has been stopped but there is no upward lift. It all seems very fragile.
- Quarterly Newsletter - July 2010
We are pleased to announce the launch of our website www.pinneyandscofield.com. We believe this tool will be helpful in many ways - and with it we will join the modern world.
- Quarterly Newsletter - April 2010
The remarkable stock market rally continued through the first quarter of 2010, thus bringing your one year returns to between 30-80% depending on your allocation (see your enclosed Twelve Month Asset Class Performance Summary for your exact number).
- Quarterly Newsletter - January 2010
Last year proved to be unusually rewarding for equity investors around the world. Calendar year returns were more than 25% in 41 out of the 45 countries tracked by Morgan Stanley Capital International.
- Quarterly Newsletter - October 2009
The recovery we wrote about in our last letter has continued, with strong returns in both equities and bonds. As such we think this is a great time to start thinking about the down-side.
- Quarterly Newsletter - July 2009
As you are no doubt aware, there has been a very sharp recovery in the equity markets. From March 9th to the end of June the S&P 500 was up over 35%, US small cap stocks were up more than 48%, international stocks were up about 45% and emerging markets were up over 55%. That’s 55%, in a bit more than three months. It’s quite remarkable.
- Quarterly Newsletter - April 2009
We would like to start out by saying that this letter will not answer the big question – “when will it stop?” It would be comforting to believe that this question is answerable. Perhaps that is why we are susceptible to articulate (or loud) hucksters who claim to know. But deep down we understand that it cannot be known.
- Quarterly Newsletter - January 2009
2008 was a disaster in the markets. We are told this over and over – there has never been a year so bad since 1931 – and very likely more disaster lies ahead.
- Quarterly Newsletter - October 2008
What is going on now in the financial markets is both unprecedented and yet also just the same old stuff. And the same rules apply. There are two types of investors, or two types of investment behavior - pro-cyclical and contra-cyclical.
- Quarterly Newsletter - July 2008
The stock markets of the world continue to fall. We are now officially in a bear market, with both the S&P 500 and the Dow down more than 20% since last October. Some markets are down much more.
- Quarterly Newsletter - April 2008
The markets are looking like a three-year-old after a double shot latte – moving around a lot but not going anywhere! Current prices of the major markets are very similar to the beginning of 2007, but the daily and weekly changes during that time have been some of the most volatile in history.
- Quarterly Newsletter - January 2008
We were thinking we might just send the last letter we wrote. Not much has changed. The credit markets are still panicked and the equity markets are scared as well.
- Quarterly Newsletter - October 2007
We have just been provided with yet another lesson on how difficult it is to time the market. Starting in mid-August the world-wide credit markets had the financial equivalent of a massive stroke.
- Quarterly Newsletter - July 2007
When markets begin to turn weak, the newspapers are full of stories about why the markets might fall precipitously. The reasons vary. This time it is sub-prime loans.
- Quarterly Newsletter - April 2007
In our last few letters we have made reference to the recent spectacular performance of the world equity markets.
- Quarterly Newsletter - January 2007
So – the end of one year, the beginning of another – and the same old questions. The markets have done remarkably well over the past year.
- Quarterly Newsletter - October 2006
As you may have heard, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new high on October 3rd. The S&P 500 is still about 10% below its peak while the Nasdaq composite remains more than 50% below its all time high – both set in March 2000.
- Quarterly Newsletter - July 2006
Warfare has broken out in the Middle East. The U.N. has passed a resolution on North Korea, but that government has stated that they will ignore it.
- Quarterly Newsletter - April 2006
As your asset class performance reports shows, the past twelve months have been very strong. The international equities have done particularly well, as have the U.S. small stocks.
- Quarterly Newsletter - January 2006
In the financial markets 2005 was a pretty standard year. The S&P 500 was up 4.89%. The Lehman Long Bond Index did 2.43%. As your asset class performance report shows, your portfolio did substantially better.
- Quarterly Newsletter - October 2005
As your asset class performance report shows, the markets have done well over the past twelve months.
- Quarterly Newsletter - July 2005
As you know, our method combines two basic ideas - diversification and rebalancing. Diversification means owning many different asset classes - with the expectation that some will do better than others.
- Quarterly Newsletter - April 2005
The past ten years have been a triumph for the investment method of diversification. Diversification has produced long-term results similar to those of the large capitalization U.S. growth stocks while displaying much less volatility.
- Quarterly Newsletter - January 2005
The past twelve months have produced remarkable investment returns. These returns are summarized in the reports we are sending, but these reports contain a lot of information and can be difficult to read.
- Quarterly Newsletter - October 2004
Most of the letters we write are about investing, markets, economics - topics related to the service we provide. In this letter, we will discuss aspects of our internal operations.
- Quarterly Newsletter - July 2004
A philosopher once said - if a person doesn’t know where he is going, any road will get him there.
- Quarterly Newsletter - April 2004
Warren Buffett once commented that he wouldn’t mind if the stock market were closed for five years. This is a wise observation.
- Quarterly Newsletter - January 2004
The recovery we discussed in our last letter continued through the fourth quarter - making 2003 an historic year.
- Quarterly Newsletter - July 2003
One of the primary ways we endeavor to add value to your accounts is the disciplined investment approach we utilize.
- Quarterly Newsletter - March 2003
It seems that every day the market dives – lower and lower. Over the past twelve months the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are down 23%.
- Quarterly Newsletter - December 2002
It seems that with each letter we write uncertainty rises. The administration is in the process of re-doing its economic team.
- Quarterly Newsletter - September 2002
As we pass the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, we still feel the shock and horror of that day. Like everyone, we are wondering – what happens next?
- Quarterly Newsletter - June 2002
There is a Zen Buddhist practice known as zazen. Zazen is to sit completely still, noticing the emotions that rise up but not acting on them and letting them fall away.
- Quarterly Newsletter - March 2002
The markets continue to be filled with tension and uncertainty. What will happen in the war on terror?
- Quarterly Newsletter - December 2001
The attacks of September 11 have very obviously increased the level of financial and political risk we face.
- Quarterly Newsletter - September 2001
We hope this letter finds you, your family and friends safe. Our hearts go out to those who have lost loved ones.
- Quarterly Newsletter - June 2001
The markets, it would appear, have quieted down a bit – though recovery from the pounding of the last 15 months is proceeding slowly at best.
- Quarterly Newsletter - March 2001
We are currently experiencing the most severe stock market downturn since the 1970’s. The high point of the broad market was March 24, 2000.
- Quarterly Newsletter - December 2000
Our last letter about Nortel and what might happen if the company were to post disappointing earnings or revenue growth was prescient.
- Quarterly Newsletter - September 2000
During the ten years we have been managing portfolios using our passive methodology, we have often described the funds we utilize as “index funds” or “index-style funds.” Many of the funds we have recommended over those ten years and continue to recommend are better described as factor funds.
- Quarterly Newsletter - June 2000
Again a quarter filled with volatility and sudden reversals. The NASDAQ index, having gained 40.78% during the three months ending February 29, 2000 then lost 27.59% in the next three months.
- Quarterly Newsletter - March 2000
This is the time of year that the lists of “the best” mutual funds appear in the popular investment press (Money Magazine, Barrons, Forbes, etc.). As ever, they are the funds that did best last year.
- Quarterly Newsletter - December 1999
To say that technology stocks, and especially the internet companies, are the hottest investments going would be an understatement.
- Quarterly Newsletter - September 1999
This is very nearly our last letter of the millenium, and our theme is Y2K.
- Quarterly Newsletter - June 1999
In this letter we would like to follow up on our previous letter about the psychology of investing. Do you remember the third quarter of 1998?
- Quarterly Newsletter - March 1999
We would like to use this letter to make a distinction between performance management and diversification management.
- Quarterly Newsletter - December 1998
We have two basic subjects we would like to discuss this quarter. The first is the year 2000 or millenium bug (Y2K), and the second is the general issue of market volatility and expectations.
- Quarterly Newsletter - September 1998
Wow, what a quarter!! Volatility is everywhere. North Korea shoots a missile over Japan. Russia apparently is in full meltdown. The Iraqi weapons inspections are not going well.
- Quarterly Newsletter - June 1998
This is the first in what we expect will be a series of letters on the general topic of investing and investment methodology. In future letters, we intend to address such questions as benchmarking, mutual fund management, and (just to get your attention here) "investment pornography."
- Quarterly Newsletter - March 1998
The events of the past few months have, in our view, lent strong support to the investment ideas we espouse. In the face of considerable volatility and stress, our clients have maintained their composure, bought at lower prices, sold at higher ones, and generally prospered from market activity that can be frightening if one is not prepared for it.
- Quarterly Newsletter - December 1997
The world stock markets have returned to their normal levels of volatility. The past several years have lulled investors into thinking market returns occur without volatility.
- Quarterly Newsletter - October 1997
We are writing to inform you of a significant change at Pinney & Scofield. Due to the growth in our financial planning and asset management business, tax preparation has come to require more time than we can provide.
- Quarterly Newsletter - March 1997
In keeping with our now established tradition of not sending letters with our quarterly reports, we have decided to send another. We enjoy doing this, and may actually keep it up. We welcome any feedback!
- Quarterly Newsletter - December 1996
As you are quite aware, we do not often write letters to send with our quarterly reports. We are not in the “predict the future” business, and we imagine you would get pretty tired of hearing the same old sermon quarter after quarter.
